Navigating a Bear Market
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In recent days, the A-shares market has experienced significant declines, leading to the three major indices shifting from a symmetrical triangle pattern to a descending triangleThis new formation implies a greater probability of further downward movementCurrently, the market is testing a crucial low support level, and should it break this support, it could signal the end of the current rally, potentially leading to a drop back to previous lows with substantial room for further declinesThe trends in the upcoming week will be particularly critical to watch
The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have recently formed a symmetrical triangle shapeHowever, they have breached the crucial lower boundary of this triangle over the past few days
Without a swift rebound, we may see these indices stagnate or even break past previous support to continue descending
In the same vein, the Hang Seng Healthcare sector has faced continuous declines and has broken below its previous low supportThe downward trend appears intact, indicating a considerable space for further downturn
Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Real Estate index has slid back near its lowest point and shows signs of pausing its decline, albeit struggling to gain upward momentumThis area represents a significant low, and its support seems to be relatively solidHowever, if the support is breached, it could trigger further panic selling
The Northbound Stock Connect's CSI 50 Index had previously seen substantial movement but is currently showing signs of exhaustion and has been oscillating downwards without signs of stabilization
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It remains distanced from previous lows and faces potential for a considerable correction risk
Turning to commodities, soybean meal recently bounced back after nearing its prior low support but quickly fell back after surpassing a previous resistance levelThe recent days have seen it seemingly break its upward trend line, introducing uncertainty into its trajectory
The Indian index had been in a prolonged upward oscillation but is currently attempting to regain some footing after a brief pullbackIt has formed a symmetrical triangle, yet it continues moving within this triangle without clear direction for the future
Vietnam's index has recently rebounded following a short-term decline, yet it has encountered resistance at previous highs leading to a pullback
The index has broken below its upward trend line and appears to have breached earlier support levelsUnless these support levels hold, further declines could follow
As the market experiences these fluctuations, a pressing question arises: how can investors respond to the current bear market?
Investing like Warren Buffett is not necessarily challengingBy adhering to the advice of this renowned investor, one can purchase undervalued stocks of well-run companies and hold them for decades
Another often overlooked key to Buffett's success lies in his perspective; the "Oracle of Omaha" is an eternal optimist
But what of the pessimists? Even if one embodies Buffett’s intrinsic qualities by purchasing quality stocks at discounted prices and holding them for over twenty years, one’s attitude may pose an obstacle if fears regarding the short-term market weigh heavily
Such worries can adversely affect one's long-term outlook
Are you an optimist or a pessimist? An interesting experiment might clarify this for you:
1. Recently, John Hancock Investment Management commented on U.Sstocks: “We have just witnessed one of the best two-year returns in the history of the S&P 500 IndexThe only other period of such strong stock returns lasted during the late 1990sSome view the late 1990s as the golden age of equity returns, while others deem it a massive bubble that led to a 'lost decade' from 2000 to 2010.”
2. Now, ask yourself: “Given the stellar performance of the S&P 500 Index over these two years, am I excited about the future of the market?”
Rational investors might respond: “I cannot predict the market for the coming years, but I plan to hold long-term for stable returns.”
Yet even rational long-term investors often feel anxious, coming to terms with dark clouds on the horizon
They begin calculating how much they would lose if their portfolio suffers a sharp decline
Another examination of your perspective is provided in a recent MarketWatch column by Paul AMerriman: “Personally, I am absolutely certain that at some point, the market will drop 30% to 50%. This could begin almost without warning and without any currently evident reasons.”
If you can read Merriman's remarks without concern, then you are likely equipped to endure market volatility; if not, you may struggle with substantial declines
Now imagine yourself as a reasonable pessimistYou aren’t fearful of the future, but the thought of watching your portfolio decline unsettles you, even knowing you won’t panic-sell
How might a financial advisor assist you in dealing with such losses?
Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, states, “The key is to set expectations rather than assume that negative events will occurA process and a plan are crucial for all investors.” This framework can help them overcome pessimistic sentiments, adhere to a disciplined approach, and weather market cycles
Miskin acknowledges that after years of significant gains, the promise of the market may diminish, yet as long as you can manage your pessimism and adopt a long-term perspective, historical trends suggest you will likely increase your capital reserves and achieve success
Some advisors encourage wary clients to keep the bigger picture in mindIf substantial losses occur over the next few years, consider this an opportunity to acquire strong companies at discounted prices while maintaining a long-term outlook
Cash Ahmed, a registered financial planner in Bedford, Massachusetts, notes, “From a macro perspective, you likely won’t even notice the downturn.”
Pessimists can also benefit from reevaluating their portfoliosA diversified basket of stocks can better withstand severe economic downturns—especially those of well-established, high-quality companies
Rob Schultz, a registered financial planner in Los Angeles, suggests that “If you look at the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 index fund, even a pessimist might feel optimistic about each one, as we interact with these companies daily and tend to have more faith in their ability to rebound during market turbulence.”
Behavioral finance informs us that the anxiety stemming from losses is more pronounced than the joy from gains
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